The legislature is a fairly quiet place these days, as our politicians are scattered far and wide for the summer. But their absence hasn't ended the main political guessing game in this province.

That game is about trying to figure out if there is any hope of a revival of B.C. Liberal fortunes, and if so, who is going to create it.

A lot of names have been kicked around, but it would seem only person has a realistic hope of breathing life into the party and returning it to competitive status come the 2013 election.

That person's name?

Carole Taylor.

Of all the potential heirs to Gordon Campbell's leadership, only Taylor can separate herself from the current government, particularly over the issue of the HST.

When she was finance minister, she opposed bringing the HST to this province. Among her reasons was a refusal to give up all kinds of exemptions to the tax, and reluctance to cede authority over the sales tax to the federal government.

But her potential strengths go much deeper than that.

As finance minister she racked up some hefty budget surpluses and gained a reputation as an able, pragmatic and non-ideological politician (although there are likely many people who never really viewed her as a politician in the traditional sense of a partisan combatant).

Her public image is one built on achievement, likeability and even glamour. On all these fronts, she scores much better than any other potential leadership candidate.

But a key strength is her ability to go to the voters with clean hands, to make the argument that she had nothing to do with the things that made the B.C. Liberals so unpopular over a relatively short period of time.

Speculation abounds over Gordon Campbell's future. Personally, I think he will announce sometime next year or early 2012 that he won't be running again.

Of course, if there's a miracle turnaround in the polls - an eventuality that appears extremely remote - he may well choose to stick around. But he once told me that he thought 10 years in the premier's chair was a good benchmark of political success, and that means the due date is May 2011.

His departure would theoretically mean a leadership race in the party. But there doesn't have to be one.

The NDP, for example, opted to let Mike Harcourt - fresh from Vancouver city hall - take over the party leadership unopposed in 1987. The New Democrats were mindful how much damage a messy leadership fight can do to a party, particularly when things don't go as planned and a long-shot candidate whom no one really wanted as leader ends up being just that (remember Bob Skelly?).

The B.C. Liberals, however, seem to have no end of people whose ambition may lead them to reach for the leader's position.

Cabinet ministers such as Rich Coleman, Kevin Falcon, Mike de Jong, Shirley Bond, George Abbott and even the beleaguered Colin Hansen all get mentioned when talk turns to a party leadership race.

But they appear to all be hamstrung by the fallout over the HST, and even if the public grudgingly accepts the tax, I'm not sure they're going to forgive the politicians responsible for it.

Surrey Mayor Dianne Watts is also talked about as leadership material, and certainly the fact she's not "one of them" puts her in good stead. But her inexperience at the provincial level may create enough doubts to nix a winning candidacy.

This brings us back to Carole Taylor.

She hasn't actually said she'd even be interested in taking the job, but that's to be the expected response as long as Campbell is still the boss.

And with Campbell likely to remain leader for another year or so, it is premature for the B.C. Liberals to allow any public speculation by their own people on the leadership issue.

But privately, you know they're all thinking about it. And if they want to survive, they had better have a game plan.

It appears the best such plan would see all those leader wannabes check their egos at the door and allow Taylor to win by acclamation.

That could set up an historic fight in 2013: Carole versus Carole. Not only would that guarantee an elected female premier in this province for the first time ever, but it would likely ensure this province sticks close to the political centre.

Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global BC.

KBaldrey@globaltv.com