Can Christy Clark be stopped from winning the B.C. Liberal party leadership?

That question must weigh heavy on the minds of her three opponents as the campaign heads into its final week.

She is the perceived front-runner in the race (even the other candidates agree on that) and if her campaign's own polling is accurate, she is tantalizingly close to becoming the next premier of B.C.

She claims to have more than 40 per cent support when all ridings are counted. That translates to more than 3,400 "points" in the party's weighted electoral system, which would put her about 850 points short of a majority victory (there are 8,500 points - 100 per riding - so a majority win is 4,251 points).

If there is no first-count winner, of course, then the second choices of those who voted for candidates who are dropped from the ballot are then counted.

If, say, Mike de Jong finishes last on the first count, those who voted for him would have their second choices redistributed among the other candidates. Presumably, Clark would pick up at least some of that support, which would push her even closer to victory.

And that's when things will become very interesting. After this second count, the third-place candidate would drop off the ballot.

That means it's likely that either George Abbott or Kevin Falcon would drop, and their pool of voters would have their second choices redistributed.

Presumably, this would be a much larger number than voted for de Jong, which in turn increases the chances that Clark will get some support from this group.

Despite their clashes in the campaign, it's easy to see a lot of Abbott supporters naturally making Clark their second choice. After all, there is not a wide philosophical gap between the two candidates.

On paper, it's easy to say there's no way Falcon supporters would list Clark as their second choice. The two candidates, after all, are polar opposites and represent the most conservative and liberal bases of the party.

But since we're talking about potentially thousands of voters, it's not difficult to imagine a small percentage of Falcon supporters actually listing Clark as an attractive second option. That, combined with the second-choice support she gets from de Jong, should push her over the top.

Well, maybe.

Clark's polling may be overstating her support, and it may well be true that very few people supporting other candidates end up making their second-best choice.

But her front-runner status is why we are seeing, in the last weeks of the campaign, an attempt to forge a not-so-subtle ABC (Anyone But Clark) front in the party. Abbott and Falcon will likely try to send messages to each other's supporters (and to de Jong's as well) to make them the second choice, and not Clark.

But the unique electoral system the party is using will make it more difficult for the ABC movement to pick up steam.

The main impediment is the fact that everyone votes once and sits back and watches candidates drop and the second-choices get redistributed (and, in certain scenarios, third choices as well, but I'm not going to get into the intricacies of that).

So there's no chance for a dropped candidate to turn to his supporters and lead them over to another candidate, as can happen at delegated conventions.

That sort of thing can build momentum for the candidate getting that kind of push, but it won't happen here.

But there is one aspect of this electoral system that may be the great equalizer and may be Abbott and/or Falcon's best way of beating Clark: the vital need for the winning candidate to identify supporters, and then getting them to actually vote.

Clark can be tracking high in the polls, but if her team does not identify their supporters and get them to vote in sufficient numbers, the stage will be set for Abbott or Falcon to leapfrog her on the third count.

But I'm not betting against her (or on her either; the second-choice element makes things too unpredictable).

In any event, the winner will be announced at 6:30 this Saturday evening (tune into Global, as we'll be covering it live).

Keith Baldrey is chief political

correspondent for Global B.C.

Keith.Baldrey@globalnews.ca